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Malaysian election results 2013 analysis essay

Malaysian Election Results 2013 Analysis Essay

Malaysian election results 2013 analysis essay

Analysis of the Malaysian Electoral System Essay example - According to the Election Commission (EC) of Malaysia (“Process of election”, n.d.), there are six steps for the Electoral process in Malaysia. Analysis Interpretation of the news based on evidence, The Malaysian election results were a surprise. Here are 4 things to know. In , the last general election, its predecessor. These are the election results of the Malaysian general election by parliamentary constituency. These members of parliament (MPs) will be representing their constituency from the first sitting of 13th Malaysian Parliament to its dissolution.. The parliamentary election deposit was set at RM 10, per candidate. Similar to previous elections, the election deposit will be forfeited if the. Lets take Malaysian General Election (GE ) as a example. The GE is the most intense election. We will write a custom sample essay on Malaysian Politic specifically for you for only $ $/page. No results found for. In this post, I dissect the results of Malaysia’s thirteenth general elections (GE13), illustrating these three fundamentals of Malaysian politics at work. The Results: Region and Ethnicity The electoral data that I was able to assemble from Malaysian internet sources should be seen as preliminary.

Malaysian election results 2013 analysis essay

Post-Election Report Malaysian Election: His first post was presented last week on The Monkey Cage here. Region and Ethnicity The electoral data that I was able to assemble from Malaysian internet sources should be seen as preliminary. Nevertheless, they help us to understand just how the ruling coalition fared. First, two-coalition vote shares by parliamentary district.

This is not new—the elections also saw the BN depending on East Malaysia for its parliamentary majority—but there will now be unprecedented pressure on the BN to put East Malaysian issues front and center. Also evident in the maps is a clear trend in the peninsula toward opposition victories in smaller electoral districts, which tend to be urban areas. However, it is just as much an illustration of ethnic politics at work, for Malay districts tend to be large rural districts.

To show this, I draw on district level data on ethnicity that I gathered in gated version; ungated PDF here. While updated data on ethnicity by electoral district has recently been made available, and I hope to use it in future analyses, these new data will almost certainly not change these conclusions in any appreciable way.

Post-Election Report 2013 Malaysian Election: Part II

We learn from this figure that there are many small districts with bumiputera majorities, but larger districts are almost exclusively bumiputera. Further evidence of the role of ethnicity can be seen in the following graph. It compares BN vote share in the peninsula to the percent Malay in each district, with each data point colored according to the BN party contesting in that race.

The figure shows that the elections were a crushing defeat for all peninsular parties except for UMNO. First, a quadratic fit: Next, as a regression: My preliminary data have 5,, votes going to the BN and 5,, for the PR, or This is possible for two reasons: These also tell us quite a bit about how to interpret the results. Looking at the columns of the following table, that pattern is abundantly clear.

We also see that the DAP contested the fewest total seats, but won a large majority of those that it contested. Further insight can be gained by inspecting the distribution of the Malay population across the districts in which each PR party contests. To interpret them, begin first with the two red lines. The solid red line shows that the DAP contests in the most heavily non-Malay districts, and the dashed red line indicates that of these seats, the lower the Malay population, the more likely the DAP was to win.

Malaysian Politic Essay

The solid green line shows that PAS contests in the most heavily Malay districts, and wins in those districts too. The blue lines are most interesting. That is precisely what appears to have occurred: The following graph shows the data directly , and reinforces this conclusion, with the vote shares for DAP and PAS included for comparison.

The ecological inference problem prevents us from knowing with certainty just what happened in those divided districts. The story is at once simpler and more complex in East Malaysia. More complex because BN parties in these states are more diverse , but simpler because the results are straightforward. Most of the seat it lost were to the DAP.

Results of the 2013 Malaysian general election by parliamentary constituency

PKR mounted a broad challenge throughout East Malaysia, yet managed to win only 2 of 35 seats. These results only barely begin to scratch the surface of GE13—the results of state elections held in 12 of the 13 Malaysian states should be particularly illuminating—but they drive home two key points.

Malaysian election results 2013 analysis essay

Second, and just as important, is the nearly complete failure of the non-Malay parties on the peninsula. Many other observers have also concluded that the vote marred by fraud. Irregularities are nothing new for close-fought Malaysian elections. But they lead to further skepticism that the ruling coalition can claim to have prevailed in a democratic election, even one held under the laws that the government itself wrote.

The broader issue now confronting Malaysia is how the two coalitions will react. The future for Anwar Ibrahim is uncertain. The best hope for PR is that PKR will continue to build a pan-ethnic support base, and that it will target heavily Malay districts and East Malaysian districts for future growth. Yet even with this, the BN does not have the two-thirds majority to which its leaders have been accustomed.

The popular reaction to the election results has been contentious as well.

Malaysian election results 2013 analysis essay

Anwar and others called for Malaysians to wear black to protest the outcome. There has also been much talk of the results as a tsunami Cina Chinese tsunami. Opinion leaders have used language that many Malaysians consider to be dangerously provocative. The deeper question for Malaysia, though, is not whether or not ethnicity predicts vote choice. On that, the evidence is clear. If not, then elections will continue on their present path, perhaps even evolving into simple contests between ethnic groups rather than among coalitions that at least claim to represent all Malaysians.

Even if bumiputeras form a numerical majority, and even if the BN has long exploited ethnic cleavages as part of its electoral strategy, very few Malaysians believe that more ethnic politics is the recipe for stability or prosperity.